A systems-based approach to parameterise seismic hazard in regions with little historical or instrumental seismicity: active fault and seismogenic source databases for southern Malawi

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract. Seismic hazard is commonly characterised using instrumental seismic records. However, these records are short relative to earthquake repeat times, and extrapolating estimate can misrepresent the probable location, magnitude, frequency of future large earthquakes. Although paleoseismology address this challenge, approach requires certain geomorphic setting, resource intensive, carry inherent uncertainties. Here, we outline how fault slip rates recurrence intervals be estimated by combining geometry, earthquake-scaling relationships, geodetically derived regional strain rates, geological constraints distribution. We apply southern Malawi, near end East African Rift, where, although no on-fault rate measurements exist, there on partitioning between border intra-basin faults. This has led development South Malawi Active Fault Database (SMAFD), a geographical database 23 active traces, Seismogenic Source (SMSSD), in which our systems-based magnitudes for faults compiled SMAFD. MW 5.4–7.2 individual sections SMSSD 5.6–7.8 whole-fault ruptures. low (intermediate estimates ? 0.05–0.8 mm/yr) imply long events: 102–105 years 103–106 Sensitivity analysis indicates that range best reduced with improved geodetic Malawi. The SMAFD provide framework information characterise regions few measurements, they could adapted use elsewhere Rift globally.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Solid Earth

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1869-9529', '1869-9510']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/se-12-187-2021